The NFL is the most unpredictable sport by far
Denver, CO – Every now and then, I come across some crazy sports statistic I had never heard before. If anyone knows me well, that is saying something too. Whether it’s a good thing or not, I am a sports numbers and stats guy. I remember how many times a #12 seed has knocked off a #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. I remember how many years it has been since the Cubs won a World Series. I remember TD vs INT ratios for star QB’s in the NFL. Why is this, you ask? No clue. Actually I kinda do know. It could have to do with the fact that for years, I have passed out countless times with Sportscenter on in my bedroom. Or it could be that I have watched an absurd amount of sports ever since I found this cool device called a remote control when I was five. Anyway, the stat I heard yesterday made me take notice and really surprised me…..it was this…..for 16 consecutive years now, at least 5 NFL teams who made the playoffs the previous year didn’t make it the following year. Wow. That is saying something considering that only 12 teams make the post-season each year. This is absolutely one major reason why the NFL is king and so popular. It’s a crapshoot. Literally, every team every year theoretically has a shot to go from bad to good. It has happened so many times, and did last year too. Who saw the 49ers going to the NFC Championship game? Who saw the Bengals making the playoffs with a rookie QB? Who saw the Broncos going 8-8 and winning the AFC West? So, of course, once I heard this crazy stat yesterday, I came up with my 5 teams who will not make the playoffs this year after doing so last year. If you all forgot, here are the available candidates – Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, Texans, Broncos, Giants, Packers, Lions, Saints, Falcons, 49ers.
1 – New York Giants - Crazy pick huh? The Super Bowl champs, not making the playoffs? Yep. Just a hunch here really. I think they will be fat cats in 2012, and not have the hunger. Before they realize it, they will be out of the race and too far back. That, and I have Philly winning the East in 2012. Call me crazy, but the NFL is a crazy world.
2 – Cincinnati Bengals - What they did last year was impressive, and Andy Dalton looked like a veteran QB in his first season. They have the building blocks to be very good, very soon. I loved what they did in this years draft, and love what they could become in the near future. But in 2012, I think they take a small step back. Why? Expectations really, and that they are so young. They snuck up on everyone last year, and somehow earned the final playoff spot in the AFC. This year, the schedule is tougher, and I think they need to go through some growing pains. Look out though, this team could be scary good in a few years.
3 – Detroit Lions - Another very young team, with a load of talent. How can you not love Stafford, Suh, and Calvin Johnson? These guys are studs and looked the part in 2011. Logic says they will only get better and build on what they did last season, right? Not so fast. This team seems to be somewhat immature at times, and now the fans expect them to win games. Not a good combo. I believe they will struggle this season, and slip back out of the playoffs. A learning year, if you will, which will pay dividends down the road.
4 – New Orleans Saints - This is a popular pick by many to miss the playoffs. The reasons are countless, which we all know by now. The thing I can’t figure out, is while this franchise is going through all of this turmoil, why are they screwing around with Drew Brees’ contract situation? He is more important than ever, and they are haggling with him over a long term deal? Really? Baffling. Although the Saints have plenty of talent to win the division, I think 2012 will be a headache for them all year. Something like 8-8 sounds about right to me.
5 – Pittsburgh Steelers - This is just more of a hunch than anything, and a few reasons add up to why I think the Steelers will struggle a bit this year. They have a new offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, who runs a different offense than what Big Ben is used to. RB Rashard Mendenhall tore his ACL at the end of last year, and may not be back til October or so. They are also planning on starting two rookie offensive linemen. Although great draft picks, that could spell doom this season at times. The Steelers always seem to make the playoffs, so aren’t they due to have an off year?
These are my 5, who are yours? Hit me up with what ya think!
Denver Sports by J Simp
14 comments
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Steelegrave
July 11, 2012 at 6:07 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
I admit I’m stretching a bit. I like what I saw of Ponder last year he preformed well in crisis and he’s smart. Same with Bradford. Palmer is a talent guy and less a thinker but I do believe he is better is crisis than Romo.
Understand I’m not a stats guy. I’m the guy that sits in front of the TV from 7am every Sunday til 10pm. I watch the games. The greatest inventions for me of all time are Sunday Ticket Gamemix and Red Zone Channel. I don’t look at stat sheets I watch players. What I see is what I judge. Those guys I listed, I like what I see. I like how they make decisions. I like their pocket presence. I like how they handle crisis. With Romo I see a guy with happy feet that runs around a lot cause he can’t make sharp fast decisions and he can’t read D’s.
I think you would agree with me that great QBs make their receivers look better. The opposite is true. Great receivers run better routs get open more frequently. Take a look at Romo’s 2011 stats with and without Miles Austin. Witten and Austin and to a lesser extent Bryant, make Romo better than he is.
I’m kinda messin with ya but I truly do feel that Tony Romo is the most overrated QB in the NFL because he really is a likeable guy. Ok next to Mike Vick, I hate that guy. And I’m not a dog lover. I often joke the only thing I like about Mike Vick is he knows how to treat dogs. I believe if animals belonged indoors they’d build fuckin houses. Okay bit of a tangent there.
Headline
July 11, 2012 at 5:40 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
That’s one time. Romo does it every other game. And if I remember right, that play should have been called back. The refs missed an obvious face mask that contributed to Rodgers losing the ball!
J Simp
July 11, 2012 at 4:35 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
Peoples memories are not very good at times, and I am used to that…..before Rodgers won a Super Bowl, do you remember him coughing up the ball against Arizona in the playoffs which was returned for the game winning score? Bet ya don’t, but it did happen. People forget stuff because he does have a ring now. He wasn’t clutch all the time. I am not saying Romo is great, can we get that straight? But he is better than most QB’s in the NFL right now, easily.
J Simp
July 11, 2012 at 4:31 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
Christian Ponder? Carson Palmer? Even Bradford? Come on, you lost me now……You don’t have to like Romo, just respect his stats. I agree he needs to do more in December and the postseason. That’s why he isn’t considered a Top 5 QB right now. Go look up his TD-Int ratio the last few years and his yards, Qb rating, etc…..it’s very, very good. He has absolutely made some boneheaded decisions at times. I never said he is a great QB, but he is a very good one.
Steelegrave
July 11, 2012 at 3:24 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
Oh and as for the 20 teams that would trade for Romo right now. Teams make stupid trades based on hype all the time. Just as fans often judge personality and likeability and “flash” over actual performance. Again I give you Mike Vick.
Romo’s a likeable guy, he’s undrafted that makes a great story. He dates super hot chicks. Everybody wants to be his friend. None of that makes him a great QB. Minimizing errors and making good decisions makes a great QB. Tony don’t do that.
Steelegrave
July 11, 2012 at 2:57 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
How do you judge ability J?
Tom Brady is the best QB in the NFL and was regarded as “not athletic” by most of his coaches. Drew Brees is small.
Great athletes fail at QB. Jamarcus Russell, Vince Young, Akili Smith, Andre Ware, Daunte Culpepper, Ryan Leaf and Mike Vick has never done anything.
Ability at QB to me is reading D’s and making good decisions, period. Romo makes horrible decisions and it costs his team.
Top 5 QBS who are better than Tony Romo on far less talented teams.
1. Sam Bradford
2. Andy Dalton
3. Jay Cutler (talented D but horrible recievers)
4. Carson Palmer
5. Christian Ponder
Tony Romo has the benefit of The Best Recieveing TE in the NFL and one of the top 3 recieving cores in the NFL
Headline
July 11, 2012 at 2:33 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
Comparing Romo to Rodgers is like comparing JR Smith to Michael Jordan because JR shoots the three ball well! 2nd highest QB rating doesn’t mean anything when you throw the ball to the other team on every potential game winning drive of your career!
J Simp
July 11, 2012 at 1:54 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
This Orton talk better be a joke from both of you…….Romo is in a very similar situation Aaron Rodgers was in two years ago. People were all over Rodgers because he hadn’t won in the playoffs yet, which obviously Romo needs to do, and soon. I am not saying Romo has the ability that Rodgers has, because he doesn’t. But Romo is a top 10 QB right now, as far as ability and numbers. Yes, January has killed him, and December has too. There are 20 teams who would trade their QB’s right now for Romo. The guy has the 2nd highest QB rating of all time. That is a fact.
Steelegrave
July 11, 2012 at 1:33 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
Headline, Ron Mexico is the alias Mikey Vick used when getting STD tests (allegedly.
J, I think your list is solid. My strongest prediction is this is the year that breaks the trend. There seems to be more seperation between the good and the bad. If I had to argue one I would say Cinci. Besides being a life-long Vikings sufferer I am a Ravens fan and I have concerns. The only thing older than the Steeler’s D is the Ravens D and the only thing older than them is Ravens O-Line. The Suggs basketball? injury is a problem. Murda has lost more than a step and Ed Reed is where Ray-Ray was last year. And I don’t trust Flacco. I hate to say it but if I had to make this prediction I don’t feel either of my teams will be playing in January. Thank god I just love the game.
Look Headline, I’m not saying the Giants aren’t good but the record and injuries show what a dogfight the East is. I just don’t think they have it in them to make that run again. They have (according to early strength of schedule charts) the toughest schedule in the NFL with Philly being the next closest in the division at 7. And I do believe Romo goes out about game 6 and Orton carries them to the promised land. Where they get lambasted in the Wild Card round.
Headline
July 11, 2012 at 12:35 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
So remember Mr. Grave, the Giants ended up with a 13-7 record including the playoffs. With two wins against the almighty Patriots (13-3), one against Green Bay (15-1), and one vs SF (13-3). The first win against NE was in Foxborough while they were still beat up. Furthermore, as a healthy team the Giants were more like 12-1!
As for the Cowboys winning the division… If you’re thinking that Romeo could get hurt and that Kyle Orton comes in to take the Cowboys to the playoffs? I could see that happening. But a healthy Romo means no playoffs in my book.
And Ron Mexico ???
J Simp
July 10, 2012 at 5:05 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
Steelegrave, who are your five teams to miss the playoffs this upcoming year?
Steelegrave
July 10, 2012 at 11:20 AM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
Yeah Headline not sure I agree with you. Year in and out the NFC East is a dogfight. I do agree with J’s opinion here, I don’t see the Giants having the drive. They didn’t upgrade anywhere. America ‘s Team may have fixed their biggest achilles heel this offseason. Dumping highly overrated Terence Newman and picking up stud Brandon Carr was huge. Adding Brodney Pool from the Jets at safety and new D-backs coach from the Ryan school will make that unit viable. And Philly’s got the Dream team, how can you bet against that. Again just a bit of sarcasm. I will always bet against Ron Mexico. Washington will be better, they may take a couple of division games. I think the Boys win the division and get trounced by Green Bay or Chicago in the playoffs. I think the Giants are a solid pick to make up your 5. There won’t be a wildcard team from the East, not the way the North is shaping up.
Lets not forget the Giants squeaked into the playoffs with a 9-7 record last year, by no means does that make the Giants a powerhouse lock to repeat.
Romo is the man! I mean genius Amani Toomer says he’s way better than Eli, so I gotta concur. How can anyone think that Eli’s 8-3 Playoff record and 2 rings beat Romo’s ONE playoff win? Can’t compete with that logic! Ok a bit of sarcasm admittedly.
Here’s what I know as fact. The NFC East has the most overrated QBs of any division in the NFL, with the exception of Eli who never gets his due.
Headline
July 6, 2012 at 11:44 AM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
Yeah, I agree with the boss. The Giants have a really good chance to make the playoffs again. Vic, RG3, and Romeo won’t make it happen this year. I think your love affair with Romeo is clouding your judgement. That’s really your favorite. I’ll take the Giants in that division any day !
KJ and R
July 6, 2012 at 11:23 AM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
The NY Giants are going to repeat !!!