Any fan of the NFL knows by now that Drew Brees threw for 5476 yards in the 2011 NFL season. That totally shattered Dan Marino’s record of 5084 yards passing, an NFL single season record that stood for 27 years. In a year where it seemed like defenses were behind, Tom Brady also broke Marino’s record with 5235 yards passing and Matthew Stafford came very close with 5038. We’ve all heard it said that the NFL has become a passing league which it obviously has. There are many rule changes over the years that have helped the passing game flourish, which in turn has made the game more exciting. But the new kickoff rule of 2011, put in place for safety reasons, has made the single biggest impact in yards thrown we’ve ever seen. Kicking off from the 35 yard line is the major reason that 5000 yard passing seasons will become the norm in the NFL.
Here’s why…
First let’s do a review of NFL rule changes that have had a major influence on single season passing yardage. The biggest year of change happened between the 1977 and 1978 seasons. In that year the league made a rule change that stated a receiver could no longer be contacted by a defensive back after 5 yards and that offensive linemen were allowed to block the way they do today. Before, offensive linemen had to block with closed fists and forearms. In addition to rule changes, the NFL season became 2 games longer from 14 to 16 games. Therefore, it’s no surprise that Dan Fouts broke the single season record for passing yardage in 1979 (4082 yards), 1980 (4715 yards), and 1981 (4802 yards). Dan Marino then added another 282 yards in 1984 which stood until last year when Brees surpassed Marino by a whopping 392 yards!
Before we get into why Brees destroyed Marino’s record, let’s look at a few more changes that have affected the passing game over the years. There was a more recent focus by referees to police the 5 yard rule after the 2003 Patriots/Colts playoff game. Then, there was the rule to make sure Tom Brady doesn’t get hurt. I’m joking a little, but most NFL fans remember a day when the QB was open game. And then there is the fact that most young players are now brought up in high school and college systems that tutor players in today’s NFL type spread offenses. Combinations of these influences on the passing game are the major reasons why single season passing records have fallen lately. A good example being the single season touchdown record set by Peyton Manning in 2004 at 49 and again by Tom Brady in 2007 at 50.
So why did the yardage record get obliterated this year whereas other records in the passing game did not? I believe it is due in fact to one single rule change, the kickoff rule. By moving the kickoff forward 5 yards from the 30 to 35, more drives started on the 20 yard line instead of further up the field due to touchbacks. According to an article written by Paul Carr on ESPN, the rule change moved the average starting line of scrimmage (LOS) back 4.7 yards in 2011 (LOS 22.1) from 2010 (LOS 26.8). With the average team receiving around 80 kickoffs a season, that translates into an additional 376 yards of field to cover assuming the teams still score as many points. Unfortunately, this isn’t always the case and therefore, you can’t simply take the percentage of passing out of 376 additional yards and then state this is why Brees, Brady, and Stafford all passed for 5000 plus yards.
To prove my point, we need to look a little deeper. More specifically, let’s take a closer look at the New Orleans Saints in 2011. The stats I’m going to focus on are a couple of nifty drive stats provided by Football Outsiders. One basically states a team’s average yardage per drive and the second stat tells where on average that team started its drives from. The second stat is also different from the average LOS after a kickoff because it includes where all drives start from. IE punts, kickoffs, turnovers, and turnover on downs.
In 2011 the Saints had an average drive of 42.44 yards. They had 174 drives that started on the 28.24 yard line. The first number is significant because it is by far the highest average over the last 10 or 12 years. To give you an idea of the difference, the Houston Texans were the best in 2010 with an average drive of 36.16. The second number is significant because the kickoff rule affected where the average drive started from for every team in the NFL. According to Keith Goldner of Advanced NFL Stats, the average starting LOS went from around the 31 yard line back to the 28.4 yard line. 2.6 yards doesn’t seem like a lot but when you factor in 189 drives on average, the total difference in yardage for a 16 game season is 491 yards. Therefore, once you add that 2.6 yards back into the Saints average LOS, their average drive becomes 39.84. With 174 drives in 2011, the Saints would have had 452 fewer yards gained. Drew Brees accounted for right around 75 percent of the offensive total and thus would have had 336 fewer yards, or a total of 5140.
As you can see, even with the above adjustment, Drew Brees still breaks Dan Marino’s record and it goes to show how special his year really was. But the point now turns to the other two in the 5000 yard club. Applying the same formula to Brady and Stafford, Brady ends up with 4887 yards and Stafford ends up with 4629 yards. Now this math is by no means super accurate. Nor am I absolutely stating these calculations would be correct had the NFL not changed the kickoff rule. But it is obvious to me that the rule did have a significant affect on passing totals. Therefore, with the number of elite quarterbacks in the NFL today, we will be seeing 5000 yard passing seasons become the norm.
Denver Sports Chat by Headline
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Steelegrave
August 6, 2012 at 4:47 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
Don’t get me wrong J. I love the NFL as much as I have in the past but it’s a very different game. I think Brady and Manning are among the greatest to ever play the game. There may also be room there for Rodgers and Brees. But the records that are dropping are more due to the rules than they are to exceptional QBing. The math doesn’t lie. They pass more now and they have longer fields. Those are facts.
That’s why I hate QB Ratings. They don’t take into account a lot of factors for the position. QBR doesn’t even have Romo in the top 10 for his career. Last year he was 4, that was the only time he cracked the top 10. Cassel has never even approached the top 10. In 2008, his season with NE, he was 12 with a 60.9 Total QBR. In 2010, his best statistical year, he was 16 with a 50.9 Total QBR. Touchdown/Interception ratio does not tell the whole story, just ask Brett Favre.
You CANNOT sell me on Donovan McNabb! Andy Reid had to design an entire offense to cover-up his failings. When he was no longer in that offense he couldn’t even play in the NFL. He couldn’t read D’s, he couldn’t understand the playbook. He didn’t know the goddamn overtime rules! His one appearance in the Superbowl was the worst QB display ever with the exception of Neil O’Donnell. Age has ZERO to do with it. Players get smarter the longer they play that makes up for deterioration in skill.
The point is not giving today’s QBs credit. The point is rule changes are the main reason records are falling. You can’t tell me these guys are better than Dan Marino and Joe Montana. It doesn’t sell.
As for the HOF. Cris “All he does…catch touchdowns” Carter isn’t in the Hall of Fame. Don’t even get me started.
J Simp
August 6, 2012 at 3:42 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
So much to respond to…..To be accurate and factual, Cassel’s best statistical year was in Kansas City (2010), not New England. Is he a star? No, but he had a heck of a 2010 as a Chief (they won the AFC West). Tony Romo has absolutely had his moments when he has not come through in the clutch…..however, you cannot totally discount his numbers. His QB rating is second best all-time. His career TD-Int ratio is outstanding. His defense the past few years is just as much to blame as he is for not coming through in December. McNabb being horrible after his Philly days has more to do with his age and being out of shape, in my opinion. I agree a great QB-coach combo can do wonders for both parties. Brady-Belichick, Montana-Walsh, Shanahan-Elway, etc…..by golden age of QB’s being now, I mean we are watching more great quarterbacking, as a whole, than ever before. There will be more Hall of Famers from this era than any other ever before. Does it have some to do with the rules? Sure. But the eyeball test is what does it for me. These guys are really, really good…..you should give them more credit, really.
Steelegrave
August 6, 2012 at 2:26 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
Not at all arguing draft position. It was just a statement. Brady was considered “unathletic” by scouts and many of his coaches. I listed Elway, Kelly and Marino because they were all the same draft class not because they are legends. 1983 was the golden age of QBing.
Maybe it’s too early to tell if 5000 is going to become normal. If a couple guys break it this season it should become apparent. But the math is compelling.
We can look at Matt Flynn. Comes off the bench and has the biggest single game passing of the season. Now he’s 2nd on the depth chart in Seattle behind T-Jack. Is it the golden age of QBs or is it Green Bays offensive juggernaut? Matt Cassel subs in for an Injured Brady and the team doesn’t miss a beat. He’s a joke in KC. Kevin Kolb looked like a starter in Philly and he’s horrible, Andy Reid even made Donovan McNabb look good. Brees was serviceable in San Diego and then he hooked up with Sean Payton and a ton of receivers. When Miles Austin is healthy Romo looks like he can actually play in the NFL, when Austin is hurt, not so much.
Just not sure of a golden age. Smart coaches are taking advantage of the passing rules along with smart QBs. Sometimes you get both and you get the Patriots and Giants. Sometimes you only have one and you get San Diego and Philly. Sometimes you have neither and you get the Cowboys.
J Simp
August 5, 2012 at 9:38 AM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
I agree, the guys now are not better than those legends like Elway, Marino, Favre, etc….but I do believe there are more really good QB’s now at one time than ever before. Sure, the rules benefit them today, and I guess it’s just an opinion, but based on the “eyeball test”, I think these guys today as a group, are the best ever. The argument that some of today’s QB’s were lower round draft picks and shouldn’t be this good is very flawed. Dan Marino was a late 1st round pick, Brett Favre was a second round pick, Joe Montana was a 3rd round pick, andTerry Bradshaw was almost bad enough early on to never make it in the NFL. Where a guy is drafted is irrelevant, you never totally know how he is going to develop.
Steelegrave
August 5, 2012 at 12:30 AM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
But J how can you know for sure that we are experiencing a “golden age” of QBing without the current rules? Brady was a 6th round pick who was considered “unathletic”. Brees had a nice career at Purdue and broke some Big Ten passing records. But does anyone consider the Big Ten a passing power? Rodgers was known for his proficiency in college but not big yardage. I contend that we wouldn’t be having this golden age without the passer friendly rules. Maybe the guys that aren’t passing for 5000 yards just suck. i mean Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez and Ben Rapelesburger? Really? Some guys just have very bad coaches. Philip Rivers.
By the way, I fully understood what you were saying. I just don’t believe that the current guys are any better than Elway, Kelly and Marino. Maybe even Tony Eason.
J Simp
August 3, 2012 at 2:07 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
I don’t think you understood what I said. The rules do play a part in it for sure, but to discount what these QB’s are doing is saying that the rules play a bigger part than the quality quarterbacking does. The field position thing is very accurate, and is part of it too. But the point is, if you are telling me that the current QB’s are not the best group the NFL has EVER seen, that is just ridiculous. Give these guys credit, as there are plenty of QB’s last year who didn’t even approach 5,000 yards. The QB talent is the main reason records are being broken, not the rules. Again, the rules have played a part in it, but they are not the MAJOR reason why.
Steelegrave
August 3, 2012 at 12:18 PM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
Have to disagree there J. The league has done everything imaginable to make this a passing league. Defenders are afraid to touch players. You can barely breath on a receiver. You can’t touch the QB. And Headline’s take on field position is dead on point. How can you argue with the stats? The math is there. The reason Brees is 75% of the offense is the passing/receiving rules and the reason he’s so much better than previous years is starting field position.
Passing is more exciting which means it sells more Sunday Ticket subscriptions which means more revenue and at the end of the day the NFL is a business.
J Simp
August 3, 2012 at 8:43 AM (UTC -6) Link to this comment
Saying that 5,000 yards will be “the norm” and is “no big deal” is a bit over the top. 5,000 is still averaging over 300 per game, and will still be a big deal going forward. The fact is, we are in the golden age of QB’s in the history of the NFL. The league has never seen so many high quality QB’s at one time ever before. Although there have been some obvious rule changes to benefit the offenses, give these QB’s most of the credit. They still have to complete passes against very talented defenses.